World Championships 2011, Predictions #1: WOMEN
My tip for Gold medals in bold, other medals in no particular order.
50m free: Kromowidjojo, Halsall, Veldhuis
100m free: Halsall, Kromowidjojo, Coughlin
200m free: Palmer, Barratt, Pellegrini
400m free: Adlington, Pellegrini, Carlin
800m free: Adlington, Friis, Carlin
1500m free: Friis, Gorman, Xuanxu
50m fly: Alshammar/Sjostrom, Vollmer, Dekker
100m fly: Coutts, Gandy, Lowe
200m fly: Gandy, Zige, Lowe
50m back: Zueva, Gao, Davies
100m back: Simmonds, Coutts, Spofforth
200m back: Hocking, Simmonds, Franklin
50m bst: Hardy, Chaun, Efimova
100m bst: Soni, Jones, Efimova
200m bst: Soni, Pierse, Beard
200m IM: Coutts, Kukors, Coventry
400m IM: Miley, Rice, Belmonte
4x100m free relay: Netherlands, USA, China, Sweden
4x200m free relay: Australia, USA, France, China, GB
4x100m medley relay: USA, Australia, GB
Sprint free and fly: I’m very much looking forward to seeing the Dutch ladies go up against the Swedes with Fran/Britta in the mix causing mischief as well. I think the 50m/100m free and 50m fly will be among the few events where Australia and the USA are left behind (with the possible except of Jessica Hardy in the 50m free). I honestly cannot pick between Sjostrom and Alshammar for the 50 fly so I predict a DEAD HEAT.
Middle distance: The Aussies sent a clear message at their trials that their 200m freestylers were not to be messed with. Pellegrini seems on form as well, as do the French and American girls, but if this event isn’t won by an Australian it will be a surprise. In the 400m, Adlington has an excellent chance to squash the demons of 2009 if she goes out quickly enough; Pellegrini will be on her heels all the way though.
Distance free: Becky is clear favourite for the 800m - maybe Friis and Xuanxu might give her enough pace to get under 8.15? Jazz Carlin must be well sick of being in Becky’s shadow all this time, so look out for a surprise from her, too (if she can sort out her turns she’s a real threat). Friis will have the 1500m all to herself, though keep an eye on young Grainne Murphy for a medal.
Breaststroke: No-one can beat Rebecca Soni right now so the breastroke is sadly unthrilling. Minor spoils will probably go to the Russians in the shorter events and the Aussies/Annamay Pierse in the 200m.
Backstroke: This is more like it! I am unashamedly excited for Team GB’s medal chances here, with Georgia Davies in the sprint, plus Simmonds and Spofforth in the 100/200. I wouldn’t be surprised if we won a medal in each, though getting gold will be difficult behind the Zueva (50/100), Hocking and Franklin (200) and the Chinese pair (who knows).
Butterfly: Go Ellen! Go Jemma! Alicia who?? Seriously though, I think Lowe and Gandy have been the most consistent all year, and on a good day could get at least three medals between them in the 100/200 flys. Schipper’s been off the boil and Rice will be concentrating on the medleys, so in the 200 their main threat will be Olympic champion Liu Zige and her teammate Jiao. Coutts and Sjostrom have been very quick this season in the 100 but again, their programmes may see them being spread too thinly.
Medleys: Coutts is the favourite in the 200, but she’s not unbeatable - Kukors will want to prove her victory in Rome wasn’t a suit-assisted fluke, and Coventry seems incapable of not winning medals in this event. For the 400m I am going to go out on a limb and pip for Hannah Miley - her butterfly has improved a lot this year, and if she can go out with Steph Rice and hang on for the last 200m I know she can pull it off when it goes down to the wire. If neither her nor Maria Belmonte can keep up after the fly then Steph will annihilate the entire field and that would be BORING so please sort that out Hannah kthx.
Relays: Fairly easy predictions here - NED for the sprint, AUS for the 4x200, USA for the medley. The Americans will inevitably open up a 3-4 second lead on the breastroke leg and not even the Aussies will be able to catch them. GB might be in with a medal chance: Simmonds, Lowe, Halsall are clearly a fearsome threesome. But with no Kate Haywood on the squad, can Stacey Tadd up her game? If she can’t drop to a low 1.08, we will lose out on that bronze. Er, no pressure, Stacey!
